By Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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2 is dominated by India, which contains around 70% of the region’s people. The 5-year curve shows the effects of significant famines in the mid-1960s and early 1970s, which cost lives. But during the last two decades there has been no major food crisis, and average levels of percapita cereal output have risen to around 225 kg in the mid-1990s. Notice that despite the plateau of the 1990s, levels of per-capita production are still significantly higher than those of the early 1980s. Note, too, the hint of a remarkable recent reduction in harvest variability.
3 . 6. Huffman, W. & Evenson, R. E. (1993) Science for Agriculture (Iowa State University Press , Ames, IA). 7. Rosegrant, M. W. & Svendsen, M. (1993) Food Policy 18(2) , 13–32 . 8. Bloom, D. E. & Williamson, J. G. (1998) The World Bank Econ. Rev. 12, 419–456 . 9. Sanghi, A. , Alves, D. , Evenson, R. & Mendelsohn, R. (1997) Economia Aplicado 1(1) , 7–34 . 10. McKinsey, J. W. D. dissertation (Yale University , New Haven, CT). 11. Mendelsohn, R. , Nordhaus, W. D. & Shaw, D. (1994) Am. Econ. Rev. 84(4, 88) , 753–771 .
Despite fears to the contrary, in recent years we have seen continued progress toward better methods of feeding humanity. SubSaharan Africa is the sole major exception. Looking to the future, this paper argues that the continuation of recent cereal yield trends should be sufficient to cope with most of the demographically driven expansion of cereal de mand that will occur until the year 2025. However, because of an increasing degree of mismatch between the expansion of regional demand and the potential for supply, there will be a major expansion of world cereal (and noncereal food) trade.