ZombieChatter.com

When should a minor league baseball player give up?  Perhaps when they were traded for a bunch of bats?

(cross-blogging time…you can see this in another version on RotoJoe.com)

Not-so-favorite son of Atlanta John Odom was recently traded for 10 baseball bats.  He was having immigration problems due to an incident when he was 17 years old (that was expunged from his record but still kept popping up during immigration).  So the team that signed him traded him for 10 maple bats.  When offered cash, they cried “INSULT!” and decided that they would rather have the bats.  The bats end up being worth about $650-$700.

Man, to think that you’ve almost made it.  You’re playing your heart out trying to make it to the majors, struggling through the minor leagues…and then you’re traded for $700.

I can only imagine it would be similar to my boss coming up to me and saying, “Scruffd0g, we think you’ve got potential, but we’re going to trade you to another accounting firm.  We think it’s a great deal.  We’re getting back 1,000 pens, 200 pads of green-bar paper, and a $100 Office Depot gift certificate.”

Ouch.

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say number 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say number 3, which has a goat. He says to you, “Do you want to pick door number 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?

You probably think it does not make sense to switch since it is a 50/50 shot. You are wrong!

OK, why do your chances of winning increase to two out of three if you switch? There are several ways to explain this. I’ll go through a couple of them. However, I’m aware from all the previous discussions that none of these ways might convince you! Different people are convinced by different arguments, and some never are.

One way to think of the problem is in terms of three different scenarios. There are three ‘prizes’: the car, goat 1 and goat 2. The possible scenarios are as follows.

1. The contestant originally picks goat 1. The host shows goat 2. The contestant will win the car by switching.
2. The contestant originally picks goat 2. The host shows goat 1. The contestant will win the car by switching.
3. The contestant originally picks the car. The host shows either one of the goats. The contestant will lose by switching.
These three scenarios are all equally likely (because the contestant has no idea where the car is, originally, and is making the original choice at random). In two of the scenarios, the contestant wins by switching. In the third, the contestant loses by switching. So the contestant has two chances in three of winning if they switch, and only one chance in three if they don’t switch.

Looking at it this way also shows what’s wrong with the argument that there are two possibilities after the host has opened the door — car behind door 1 and car behind door 2 — and that these are equally likely, so that it doesn’t matter whether you switch or not. There are indeed two possibilities, but they aren’t equally likely.

Convinced? Some people are persuaded by this; others can’t see why it makes sense to treat these three scenarios as equally likely.

You might prefer the following argument. Initially, there’s one chance in three (probability 1/3) that the contestant chose the right door, and two chances in three (probability 2/3) that they didn’t. Whatever the contestant chose, the host can open a door with a goat behind it, so the fact that the host did this does not affect those probabilities. So the contestant can stick with the original choice (door 1), and they’ll still have a probability of 1/3 of winning the car. Or they can change and say that the car is behind one of doors 2 and 3. What the host’s action has told them, that the contestant did not know before, is which of the remaining doors might have the car behind it. It can’t be behind door 3 now, because that has a goat. So the 2/3 probability of getting the car, that originally applied to doors 2 and 3 taken together, now applies just to door 2, and the contestant should switch.

Still not convinced? Some people find it useful to think of a rather different version of the game, as follows. Suppose that instead of three doors there are 100 doors, with 99 goats but still only one car. You pick a door. Your chances of winning the car are very small, just 1 in 100. The host generously opens 98 of the doors you didn’t pick, every one with a goat behind it. This leaves two doors still closed, your original choice and one other. Now should you switch?

Still unconvinced? The very informative article on the Monty Hall problem 5 in the Wikipedia online encyclopaedia has several other arguments that might persuade you, some of them involving more formal uses of probability. Some people are convinced by computer simulations 6 of the problem — here’s one of several that you can try online. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Thinking about the problem in terms of probability does help to show how important it is to be clear about the assumptions behind a question like this. We assumed, for instance, that the host would always open a door with a goat, regardless of your original choice, and would always offer you the chance to switch. But suppose you’ve watched this game show for years, and you know that actually the host opens the goat door and offers the switch only to contestants whose original choice of door had the car behind it. Well, if that’s really the case, you’d be crazy to switch.

Yeah I was a little lazy yesterday and did not post this.  (That and I could not remember my password), but alas here it is….your Monday Tuesday caption contest…

Xtra Medium will be playing at Smiths Olde Bar on Saturday, June 7th.  This will be our last show for a long while, quite possibly ever.  We cant call it our final show, because we played our final show two years ago, but The Eagles have been doing it for 10 years now.  Any way, I would love it if we could sell this thing out.  Please tell your friends, neighbors, and enemys about the show.  You can get tickets online at www.xtramediumband.com.  I also have about 20 tickets in hand, if you want to avoid the online fee.  I would love to see ya’ll there.  Thanks!

A Goal.

No I’m not talking about slapping a small black puck in a net, bicycle kicking a ball in a larger net, slamming a rubber ball in a circle rim, or even kicking an oblong ball between two yellow post. I’m talking about something you strive for. Something you live your life to obtain. Something you are willing to pour your blood sweat and tears into.

If you work in corporate america odds are you hear about these “goals” all the time. It is like your carrot. It is held out in front of you … “Come on if you can just do this impossible task we will give you this reward!”

Minions of Zombie Chatter I come to you now with my goal. Perhaps you may agree that it will be your goal as well. I would not think less of you if you did not though. The goal i speak of is a feet that should not be taken on lightly. It is a task of love and passion. This goal i speak of is the Beer Waterfall:

Look at the form! Look at this man as he takes not 1 not 2 not 3  not 4 BUT 5 FULL CUPS of the nectar of the gods and cascades that sweet sweet juice of life into his body! This is my goal! This is what i must achieve. It seems so far fetched almost as if you expect this man to burst into flames as if he just flew too close to the sun but dear god look at him go! I want to be able to do this. 

This IS my goal.

Like with most goals i plan to start small and work my way up. Maybe I’ll start with two beers and slowly work towards this god in the picture above. I mean look at this guy it probably took him half a decade to work up to 3 beers:

Vince Lombardi once said:

“Dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you’re willing to pay the price.”

Who am i to argue with the old ball coach. Vince I am willing to pay the price! I have seen the way of the future and my life now has true meaning. The beer waterfall is my Everest. I’ve been training all my adult life for this journey and I did not even know it. Now I just have to take that preparation and direct it towards my goal. 

I don’t anticipate it being an easy task, but we do all need goals. What better time to start then a three day Holiday weekend!

Indy is back! I won’t give away any spoilers but i think it is good for others to know what they are getting into. Surely if you grew up in the 80’s you grew up with the Indy trilogy and it left many fun memories in your mind and sparked your imagination as a kid!

I must admit my expectations going into this film were cautious. In my opinion it would be easy to make a film that dropped the ball. Would they try to modernize the series? Would the go over the top with special effects because they could. Would they try to make it tougher for today’s more violence friendly audience. All these concerns plagued me before i went to see it.

My verdict…… It was a good flick. They stuck to the original feel of the first three movies pretty well. It is over the top and much of it is not only improbable but impossible… but that is how the first three were! I think it will fit in nicely with the other three movies.

I think you just have to keep your expectations realistic and you can easily go into this movie and enjoy it particularly if you understand the feel that the first three movies had.

Now keep in mind I was never a huge Indy fan growing up i just thought it was good. Perhaps some diehards may complain about some things that i did not catch but I dug the movie.

I didn’t even have a problem with the ending and if you’ve seen it you know what I’m talking about.

So if you want to shut your brain off for two hours and go on an archaeological ride I think Indy would be a good movie for the weekend.